Both sports bettors and sportsbooks seem to love parlays. The former because parlay paydays are so attractive and the latter because parlays are so hard to win.

‪The Can’t Lose Parlay ™️ has been losing a lot this year. ‬ ‪Watch today’s Picks Central here: ‬. Can’t Lose Parlay Hat. Just got my exclusive hat. Any stoolie live in a state that doesn’t have the sportsbook? Message with offers.

According to data compiled by the UNLV Center For Gaming Research from 1984 to 2019, the win percentage Nevada sportsbooks enjoyed on parlays was over 30%, compared to around 5% for all sports bets combined.

Unless Michigan sports bettors prove infinitely sharper or choose to avoid parlay betting altogether, similar numbers should come out of this market.

Parlays are the most profitable bets for Michigan sportsbooks. That doesn’t mean you can’t win a parlay and enjoy the big payday it provides though.

Here’s a detailed explanation of parlay betting, to how you can place a parlay bet, and some of the odds on today’s most popular parlays.

Parlay betting explained

A parlay bet essentially combines two or more bets into one wager. The payouts increase exponentially on parlays because you have to win every bet, or leg, that is part of the parlay for it to pay anything at all.

In other words, if one bet loses, the entire parlay loses.

Of course, it’s hard enough to pick one winner, let alone two, three, four, or more, which is why sportsbooks are willing to offer such big odds on parlay bets.

Are parlay bets legal in Michigan?

Michigan sportsbooks will allow you to bet on parlays involving all kinds of sports, including NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAA basketball, and NCAA football games. They’ll also let you bet multi-sport parlays combining games from different sports.

However, it’s worth noting that most professional sports bettors avoid parlay betting despite the attractive nature of the big payouts involved. Michigan sportsbooks pay out less on winning parlays than the true odds of stringing together multiple betting winners.

But putting together winning parlays is not impossible, and parlay betting remains one of the most popular ways to bet on sports.

Parlay odds

Calculating parlay odds can be difficult because different sportsbooks employ different formulas, and the types of bets can vary so greatly.

What we do know is that Michigan sportsbooks consider both the currently posted odds on the individual bets and the probability of picking winners in the number of games that are part of the parlay to determine a potential payout.

You will be able to find various parlay calculators online that can give you close estimates on parlay payouts, but you’ll have to check with a Michigan sportsbook for precise potential payout information.

Parlay payouts are fixed at the time you place the bet. Even if the line changes for one or more of the games in your parlay ahead of the start, your parlay payout won’t. If the lines change in your favor you can always put together a new parlay with the same bets and an improved potential payout, but your original parlay, and its potential payout, still stands.

One Michigan sportsbook may offer a different payout for the same parlay as another, so it’s a good idea to shop around when betting parlays. Of course, this process will be made much easier when Michigan online and mobile sportsbooks go live in late 2020 or early 2021.

How to make parlay bets

Betting parlays is easy with online and sports betting apps and self-service betting kiosks at Michigan retail sportsbooks.

For the most part, you tap the screen on the sport you’re interested in betting on, browse through the betting markets, and tap on the bets you want to make a part of your parlay.

Once you’ve found them all, look for the parlay section on the instantly-created bet slip and fill in the amount you wish to wager. A potential payout will be displayed. Verify that all the information on the bet slip is correct and submit the bet.

Betting parlays at a ticket window in a retail sportsbook is all about conveying that same information to the cashier verbally and confirming. You can also fill out a parlay card with all your parlay information and hand it to a cashier at the window at most Michigan retail sportsbooks.

Parlay betting is infinitely easier and more convenient with online and mobile sportsbooks and self-service betting kiosks. Both allow you to see the potential payouts for a variety of different parlays and modify the bet as you see fit.

Most popular parlays

You can combine all kinds of standard bets into a parlay at Michigan sportsbooks. You can put together single-sport or multi-sport parlays with legs that include everything from moneyline, spread, and even futures bets. The one restriction is on bets involving the same event, which means you can’t combine moneyline and spread bets from the same NFL game, for example.

Here’s a look at some of the most popular parlays:

NFL parlays

NFL parlays are the most popular in US sports betting. The weekly NFL schedule allows you to make up to 13-game parlays almost every single Sunday. Taking a look at the NFL 2020-21 Season Week 1 odds atFanDuel Sportsbook App you can easily see what makes NFL parlay betting so popular.

Making four Week 1 $25 spread bets on a series of underdogs might look like this:

• Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: Texans +10 (-115) – $25 to win $21.74
• Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: Cardinals +8.5 (-120) – $25 to win $20.83
• Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: Bears +2.5 (-120) – $25 to win $20.83
• Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: Browns +8.5 (-110) – $25 to win $22.73

If all four bets win, you’ll make almost $90 in profits.

However, if you took that same $100 and put it on a four-team parlay involving the same bets you would stand to win more than ten times that. That’s right, the potential payout for a $100 four-team parlay involving these four Week 1 spread bets is a whopping $1,099.64.

NBA parlays

With so many games held throughout the season, including up to 12 a night at some points, NBA parlays are almost as popular as NFL parlays. Looking at some regular-season NBA game odds shows you how much more parlays pay than individual bets, even if you’re betting the favorites in just two games.

For example, the Milwaukee Bucks might be a -310 moneyline favorite over the Atlanta Hawks. Put $25 on the Bucks at that price and you stand to win just $8.06 plus your bet back.

On the same night, the Detroit Pistons might be -124 favorites over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Put $25 on the Pistons at that price and you stand to win $20.16 plus your bet back.

Can't Lose Parlay Today

Winning both bets will get you about $28 in profit, but combining both bets into a $50 two-team NBA parlay will get you more than double that, paying $69.46 plus your $50 bet back.

MLB parlays

Like the NBA, with multiple games on most days and nights throughout the season, MLB parlays are quite popular as well. Picking MLB moneyline winners and betting $25 on each in the following games might lead to close to $75 in profits:

Can't Lose Parlay Week 15

• Tigers vs. Indians: Tigers -122 – $25 to win $20.49
• Phillies vs. Mets: Phillies +112 – $25 to win $28
• Yankees vs. Red Sox: Red Sox +100 – $25 to win $25

However, putting these three moneyline bets together as a part of a three-team $75 MLB parlay could earn you a whopping $503.66, even though you’d be risking the same amount of money.

With payouts like that it’s easy to see why MLB parlays are so popular.

Successful parlay betting tips

People see the potential payouts for parlays and can’t help but fire away. It’s only later they realize how hard it is to pick just one winner, let alone the winner of two or more games.

The world keeps turning and the sportsbooks stay profitable. Still, someone is bound to hit a massive 13-game NFL parlay for big bucks every year, and there’s no reason it can’t be you.

That said, it’s those who do a ton of research beforehand and make well thought out and carefully calculated plays that win parlays regularly.

These five parlay betting tips may help set you on that path:

Combine favorites

You normally have to put some pretty big bets down to make big favorites worth your time. However, you can make a profit with a smaller stake if you put two favorites together as a part of a parlay. This is a great way to bet the (no such thing as a) sure thing and get a decent return while risking a little less than you might normally have to.

Size down

Big odds might make you want to bet big, but increasing your normal bet size for a parlay isn’t always the wise move. Sizing down may be the prudent play. Bet big-paying parlays smaller and it won’t hurt too much when they lose, which happens more often than not. The payday on the right parlay will still offer a bit of that “wow” factor even with small bet size.

Find the hedge

Play a parlay correctly and there’s a good chance you’ll be able to hedge against the last leg. This means locking up some guaranteed winnings or at least your original stake by playing a little defense, betting against yourself, and taking out somewhat of an insurance policy. If you’re doing it right, you’ll be putting together parlays that naturally provide you the opportunity to lock in some profit midway through.

Multi-sport parlays

Betting parlays is still about finding the best value bets on the board. The big difference is you have to combine several bets. Multi-sport parlays are very often your best bet because it’s easier to find multiple bets with real value when you broaden your sporting horizons.

Limit the legs

There are 13 games on any given Sunday in the NFL, but that doesn’t mean you have to bet them all in the same parlay. Look for bets that offer value and combine them. If that’s only two or three games, limit your parlay to two or three legs. Smaller parlays don’t offer the massive paydays the larger one does, but they win more often.

Bet Types

Parlay betting: key takeaways

Parlays will continue to be among the most profitable bets for sportsbooks and sports bettors will remain attracted to the big payouts they often offer. In other words, parlay betting isn’t going anywhere.

It will be among the most popular types of sports betting in Michigan even as the market grows and matures Michigan sportsbooks will make money off parlay betting and the odd story about a massive parlay win will only add to sports betting allure here in the state. People will pay more attention to the big payday than the big picture.

However, there will be profitable parlay betting as well. Expert handicappers will combine favorites, size down bets, look for hedging opportunities, and bet multi-sport parlays with a limited number of legs, eking out small gains.

As long as there is sports betting in Michigan there will be parlay betting in Michigan and everyone will love it.

Many novice bettors are told to stick only to straight bets. That’s because they don’t do the work or research to make wise investments with teasers and parlays. You too may have been told that parlay wagers are considered sucker bets. That’s not accurate at all. There are several instances where betting parlays is a profitable proposition.

Now, that doesn’t mean you should just throw any two or more teams that you like together into a teaser or a parlay. You have to use a different strategy. This article is going to cover some solid parlay situations where you can KILL a book that allows you to make certain combinations (Check out our teaser guide to see what we mean for each of the different sports).

Correlated Parlays: What They Are Explained & How to Find Them

There’s a lot that goes into making a strong parlay bet. First things first, you need to make sure you understand how parlays work. That’s just the start, there’s more advanced stuff like when is the right time to hedge your bets.

I’m not going to get into all of that today. Instead, I’m going to introduce to you what a correlated parlay is. I’ll explain exactly what it is and how to find them.

Definition

I’m going to keep it simple. A correlated parlay is a wager in which you have two bets that are tied together. If one of the wagers wins, your chances of winning the second bet increases. Most sports books are not going to accept these types of wagers because if they did, they wouldn’t stay in business very long.

Are they Profitable?

So what would it take for a correlated parlay to be profitable? If you are hooking up two teams the payout is typically 2.5-to-1. That means that you have to win 28.6% of your two teamers to turn a profit. That is figured by the return of 3.5 divided by your risk which is 1.

Now a few books like 5Dimes will give you a 2.64-to-1 payout. In that case, you only have to win 27.5% of your two-team parlays in order to turn a profit.

Let’s assume one side of your parlays hits at 50% of the time. How probable does the second event need to be in order for the parlay to be to your advantage? For the typical two-team parlay payout it needs to be 57.2% (.572 * .5 = 2.86). If your payout is 2.64-to-1 then it’s 55% (.55 * .5 = .275).

Now let’s look at situations where if one leg of the parlay wins, the other wins at more than a 57.2% clip. There are several different types of these wagers. I’m going to cover two of the most basic ones in this article.

Why You Can’t Parlay First Half with Full Game Odds

First, we are going to look at the correlation between the first half spread and the spread for the game. Next, we will look at the correlation of betting the spread and total on the same game.

If a team covers the first-half spread of a game, how often do they also cover the point spread for the entire game? If you know the team that covers the first half line is more likely to cover for the game, you can parlay those wagers and make a killing, right?

That is exactly the question I wanted to answer, and I was pretty impressed by the results.

First things first, I want everyone to understand that I am aware that no online or Vegas sportsbooks (that I know of) allow correlated parlays. This article is more about why correlated first half parlays aren’t allowed, however, if you have a local book happens to allow them, you can most definitely use this information to your advantage, that is, until your book cuts you off!

Why it is Profitable

What exactly is a correlated first half/full game parlay? You are looking to bet the first half and the full game on the same team. Either the favorite or the underdog. You can do both, but that will appear pretty obvious and likely to get you cut off sooner.

I’ve provided the hard numbers for the NFL and NBA below, but let’s just talk about the method behind the madness first. We are going to use typical two-team parlay odds, which pay 2.5-to-1 (or bet $100 to win $250). We will also use $100 as the base bet amount to make things as easy to understand as possible.

Let’s say the Patriots are favored in a game against the Lions by 7 points. In the first half, they are likely to be 3.5-4 point favorites. Our bets for this game would be:

• $100 Parlay to win $250 on the Patriots -3.5 (1st Half)/Patriots -7 (Game)
• $100 Parlay to win $250 on the Lions +3.5 (1st Half)/Lions +7 (Game)

Now obviously one of these wagers is going to lose, but that’s ok! Our goal here is just to win however many parlays we need to in order to turn a profit. Let’s say you decide you are going to bet correlated parlays on five games on a Sunday, how many parlays would you need to hit in order to turn a profit?

The worst you can perform and still turn a profit is to go 3-7 (30%) on the night. Here’s the math:

Can't Lose Parlay Week 13

• 7 Losses x $100 = $700
• 3 Wins x $250 = $750
• Total Profit = $50

Can't Lose Parlay Week 14

Now, based on an uncorrelated two-team parlay, you are only expected to win 25% of your bets (50% chance to win each = 25% chance to win both). This makes sense – otherwise, everyone would just win truck loads of money by betting parlays.

The secret here is to increase our chances of winning the second piece of the parlay. That’s where the correlation between the first half line and the game line come in. When teams cover the first half line, they have better than a 50% of covering the line for the game, right? Logic would tell us that they would, however, hard data is even better.

Historical Data from the NFL and NBA

NFL

• Favorite Covers Both 1st Half and Game Line: 73.3%
• Underdog Covers Both 1st Half and Game Line: 76.7%

NBA

• Favorite Covers Both 1st Half and Game Line: 70.1%
• Underdog Covers Both 1st Half and Game Line: 69.8%

In all of these situations, if the team covers the first half line, they are much more likely to cover the game line. For example, using NFL favorites, you are given the standard 50% chance to win the first half, but then a 73.3% chance to win the game, meaning you have about a 36.6% chance of winning your parlay.

Since you only need to hit 30% of your parlays (28.6%, to be exact) to turn a profit, these bets are a no-brainer! In fact, if you can increase your chance of winning the second bet in your parlay by 7% (so up to 57%), you should make a profit over time.

Let’s look at the expected return. Let’s just say you hit 75% in the NFL and 70% in the NBA to keep it simple. So .5 *.75 = .375 means 37.5% of the time you win $250. You lose $100 62.5% of the time. Your expected profit would be 93.75 (.375 * 250) – 62.50 (.625 * 100) for $31.25 for every $100 bet. Now if the number is 70% in the NBA you get .5 * .7 = .35. 35% of the time you’d win $250 and 65% of the time you’d lose $100. (.35 * 250) – (.65 * 100) = 87.50 – 65.00 for $22.50 of profit for every $100 bet.

You can now see why sportsbooks won’t allow you to bet parlays on the first half and game of most major sporting events. If bettors were allowed to wager on these, they would soon be out of business, as you are nearly guaranteed to make a profit over time with this method.

Of course, there may be some local books out there that aren’t aware of this, so don’t be afraid to ask around and see if there’s a sucker out there willing to take these bets!

Why No Same Game Parlays in Football? They Are Correlated

I took a look at the four major spread sports and ran the numbers. I was trying to find any situations where if a favorite or underdog covered and the total hit more than 57.2% of the time. Here is what I found.

College Football

I went back to the last 3,732 games a favorite covered the spread. What I found was the over had a record of 1,959-1,773 (52.5%). In the 3,361 games when the team a field goal or more favorite the over was 1,793-1,568 (53.3%). If the team was laying a touchdown or more the over was 1,328-1,082 (55.1%).

The over percentages started picking up when we look at double digit favorites. The over then hit 57.4% of the time on a record of 1,090-808. When a favorite of two touchdowns or more covers the over went 838-582 (59%). A 20+ point favorite covering leads to a 547-321 record for the over (63%).

When a team 28+ point favorite covers the over has hit 261-122 (68.1%) of the time. When you stretch the line out to 30 point favorites or higher the number jumps up to 216-92 (70.1%).

If a team a 35 points or more chalk and covers the over went 127-51 (71.3%). There have only been 95 favorites of 40+ points in recent years with a lined total. In those games, if the favorite covers the over was 65-29 (69.1%).

If instead of looking at the hard numbers you go with percentages then the magic number seems to be about 40%. The spread has to be 40% of the total for you to take the favorite and the over or the underdog and the under.

Can't Lose Parlay

Overall this system has seen the over go 495-274 (64.4%) when the favorite covers. Keep that in mind when taking a look at the college football odds every week.

NFL

So let’s take a look at the same parameters in the NFL. Here you won’t find nearly the same correlation. Looking at all favorites the over has gone just 1,576-1,532 (50.7%).

Let’s see if the over hits at a higher rate as we increase the number. A field goal or more favorite covering means a record of just 1,289-1,245 for the OVER (50.9%). Move up to a touchdown or more you will find the over was 527-487 (52%). However, stretch it out to double digits and when the favorite covers the over only went 203-194 (51.1%).

Favorites of more than two touchdowns that covered also went over the total 56.2% of the time at 50-39.

There is no magic number with percentages here either. That makes sense. There aren’t going to be as large of favorites in the pros v. college. There are only 16 games that have seen a spread at 40% or more of the total.

The bottom line is you can’t rely on any sort of correlation to beat the pro lines each Sunday.

In basketball, you’ll find the trend reverses. This makes sense. What happens when a big favorite is up at the end of the game? Both teams kill the clock and try to get out of there. Here is the data that I found.

NBA

Can't Lose Parlay Hat For Sale

Favorites of 5.5 or more that cover goes UNDER 51.1% of the time at 3,368-3,224. If you stretch the number up to double digit favorites who hit, the UNDER lands 52.5% of the time at 1,006-912. If you go up to favorites of 15 points or more that cover the under has hit 56.2% of the time at 122-95.

Can't Lose Parlay Hat

College Basketball

There doesn’t seem to be as much correlation with NCAA basketball. When a team covers as a favorite of six or more the under went 4,309-3,954 (52.1%). Favorites of eight or more that covered went under 3,264-2,865 (53.3%) of the time.

However, once you went up to double digits the numbers started dropping. Double digit favorites went under 52.8% of the time (2,318-2,072). 13+ point chalk that covered only went under 1,371-1,231 (52.7%) of the time.

Conclusion

The problem with the correlated parlays is finding a place that will take your action. The reputable sportsbooks that we use know about these statistics and won’t let you play them. You will need to find a square book to take the action. Or, just pair up the smaller spreads that you really like with the corresponding total.